Critical accounting assumptions and judgements
for the year ended 31 March 2006  
 
 
 
 
The following critical accounting assumptions and judgements have been applied when preparing these financial statements.
 
1. Impairment of goodwill
  The recoverable amount of goodwill is tested annually for impairment in accordance with the stated accounting policy. The recoverable amount of the cash-generating units (“CGU”) has been determined based on value-in-use calculations, being the net present value of the discounted cash flows of the CGU less the tangible net asset value of that CGU. Details of the main assumptions applied in determining the net present value of the CGU are provided in the relevant note on goodwill in these financial statements.
   
2. Retirement benefit obligations
  The cost of the benefits and the present value of the defined benefit pension funds and post-retirement medical obligations depend on a number of factors that are determined on an actuarial basis using a number of assumptions. The assumptions used in determining the charge to the income statement arising from these obligations include the expected long-term rate of return on the relevant plan assets, the discount rate and the expected salary and pension increase rates. Any changes in these assumptions will impact the charge to the income statement and may affect planned funding of the pension plans.

The assumptions relating to the expected return on plan assets are determined on a uniform basis, considering long-term historical returns, asset allocation and future estimates of long-term investment returns. The group determines the appropriate discount rate at the end of each year, which represents the interest rate that should be used to determine the present value of the estimated future cash outflows expected to be required to settle the pension and post-retirement medical obligations. In determining the appropriate discount rate, the group considers the interest rate on high-quality corporate bonds and government bonds that are denominated in the currency in which the benefits will be paid and that have terms to maturity approximating the terms of the related pension liability. The expected salary and pension increase rates are based on inflation rates, adjusted for salary scales and country-specific conditions. The inflation rate used is a rate within the governments monetary policy target for inflation and is calculated as the difference between the yields on portfolios of fixed interest government bonds and a portfolio of index linked bonds of a similar term.

Additional information is provided in the relevant note in these financial statements.
   
3. Provisions
  Provisions are, by definition, liabilities of uncertain timing or amount. In order to establish a provision, management makes assessments of the expected amount of any future cash outflows and the estimated timing thereof. Where the effect of discounting is material, provisions payable longer than one year are discounted using pre-tax discount rates that reflect the current market assessment of the time value of money and where appropriate, the risks specific to the liability. Provisions for impairment of a trade receivable are established when there is objective evidence that the group will not be able to collect all amounts due according to the original terms of the receivable.
   
4. Deferred consideration for acquisitions
  A number of business acquisitions have been made on deferred payment terms. These deferred payments are generally contingent on the future revenue and/or profits achieved by the acquired business. On acquisition date, estimates are made of the expected future revenue and profit based on forecasts made by management. These estimates are re-assessed at each reporting date and adjustments are made to the deferred consideration and related goodwill balances, where necessary. Amounts of deferred consideration payable after one year, are discounted using discount rates that reflect the current market assessment of the time value of money and, where appropriate, the risks specific to the acquired business.
   
5. Taxation
  The group is subject to income tax in numerous jurisdictions and has many transactions and calculations for which the ultimate tax determination may be uncertain during the ordinary course of business. The group recognises liabilities for anticipated tax charges. Where the final outcome of a transaction is different from the amounts that were initially recorded, such differences will impact the income tax and deferred tax provisions in the period in which such determination is made.
   
6. Share-based payments
  Share-based payment costs arise from the issue of share options to employees. These share options are classified as equity-settled share-based payments and as such, the fair value cost is determined on date of grant on an actuarial basis using a number of assumptions. The assumptions used in determining the fair value cost include expected volatility, expected dividend yield, the discount rate and the expected forfeit or lapse rate. In accordance with the principles of valuing equity-settled share-based payments, only a change in the actual experience of forfeits compared to the estimated forfeit rate assumption, will impact on the charge in the income statement. All other assumptions are determined at grant date and are not amended.

The expected volatility assumption is determined based on a rolling historical volatility over the expected life of the options. Where volatility data on the Alexander Forbes share price is not available, the average volatility of comparable financial institutions is used. The expected dividend yield is determined based on historical dividend yields and management’s estimates. The discount rate is based on zero-coupon government bonds denominated in the currency in which the shares will be issued, namely South Africa, and have terms to maturity consistent with the assumed life of the share options. The expected forfeit rate has been based on historical experience and management estimates.

Additional information is provided in the relevant note in these financial statements.
   
7. Valuation of financial liabilities under multi-manager investment and unit trust contracts
  The valuation of these financial liabilities is linked to the fair value of the supporting assets and deviations from investment return assumptions and therefore have no impact on the group’s results.
   
8. Valuation of policyholder assets and liabilities in respect of long-term insurance contracts
  The actuarial value of policyholder assets and liabilities arising from long-term insurance contracts is determined using the Financial Soundness Valuation method as described in the actuarial guidance note PGN 104 of the Actuarial Society of South Africa. The method requires a number of assumptions as inputs to the valuation model. The following process is followed to determine the valuation assumptions:
 
The best estimate for a particular assumption is determined.
Prescribed margins are then applied, as required by the Long-term Insurance Act in South Africa and Board Notice 72 issued in terms of the Act.
Discretionary margins may be applied, as required by the valuation methodology or if the statutory actuary considers such margins necessary to cover the risks inherent in the contracts.
   
  Best estimate assumptions as to mortality and morbidity, expenses, investment income and tax are used that may vary at each balance sheet date. A margin for adverse deviations is included in the assumptions. Improvements in estimates have a positive impact on the value of the liabilities and related assets, while deteriorations in estimates have a negative impact.

The process for determining the assumptions used are as follows:
   
  Mortality and morbidity
  For group life insurance contracts, the rate of recovery from disability is derived from industry experience studies, adjusted where appropriate for the group’s own experience. For individual life insurance contracts introduced in the current year, demographic assumptions were set with reference to reinsurer rates and industry experience.
   
  Expenses
  Expense assumptions are based on an expense analysis, using a functional cost approach. This analysis allocates expense between policy and overhead expenses and within policy expenses, between new business, maintenance and claims.
   
  Investment income
  Estimates are made as to future investment income and are tested against market conditions as at the valuation date taking into account the terms of the liabilities. Inflation assumptions are tested against market conditions and with regard to consistency, with the interest rate assumption.
   
  Tax
  Allowance is made for future taxation and taxation relief.
   
9. Ultimate liability arising from claims under short-term insurance contracts
  The estimation of the ultimate liability arising from claims under short-term insurance contracts has several sources of uncertainty. The risk environment can change suddenly and unexpectedly owing to a wide range of events or influences. The group is constantly refining its short-term risk monitoring and management tools to enable the group to assess risks appropriately, despite the greatly increased pace of change. There will never be absolute certainty in respect of identifying risks at an early stage, measuring them sufficiently or correctly estimating their real hazard potential.
   
10. Errors and omissions in the ordinary course of business
  The group is exposed to various actual and potential claims, lawsuits and other proceedings relating to alleged errors and omissions or non-compliance with laws and regulations in the conduct of its ordinary course of business. As with any business with similar operations to the group, the risk exists that significant adverse developments in past claims could result in material changes to provisions made in respect of prior years.
 
 
 
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